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Brinker (EAT) Gears Up for Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Brinker International, Inc. (EAT - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2024 results on Apr 30, before the opening bell. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 5.3%.

How Are Estimates Placed?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $1.15, indicating a 6.5% fall from the prior-year reported figure of $1.23. The estimated figure moved down from $1.13 per share in the past 60 days.

Brinker International, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Brinker International, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Brinker International, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Brinker International, Inc. Quote

 

The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.12 billion, suggesting a 3.3% increase from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Let's look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.

Factors at Play

Brinker International's fiscal third-quarter revenues are expected to have increased year over year, driven by solid Chili's performance, development efforts and marketing initiatives. Incremental improvements in traffic, increased menu pricing and an effective menu strategy are likely to have aided the company's performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

For the said quarter, our model predicts revenues from Chili's and Maggiano's to increase 3.4% and 1.2% year over year to $995.7 million and $121.3 million, respectively.

However, the company faced tough and continuous weather issues during the January period, which might have impacted third-quarter numbers and margin. Also, inflationary pressures and increased expenses in broad-based advertising and incremental repair and maintenance investments are likely to have hurt margins in the fiscal third quarter. The company expects a $20-million increase year over year in advertising spend for the fiscal third quarter.

Our model predicts fiscal third-quarter company restaurant expenses to be $957.7 million, up 3% year over year. Per the model, restaurant labor expenses are expected to increase 4.1% year over year to $376 million.

However, sales leverage from top-line growth, moderation in the cost of sales and effective cost management are likely to have positively impacted the company's bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter. The company is focused on bringing more premium items and enhancing food and beverage offerings, aiming to balance growth and improve margins.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Brinker this time around. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat estimates. But that's not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Brinker has an Earnings ESP of -0.07%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates

Here are some stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale space that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Wingstop Inc. (WING - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.60% and a Zacks Rank #2.

The stock has risen 49.1% year to date. WING’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 21.3%.

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.33% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Shares of SHAK have gained 41.5% year to date. SHAK’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 92.6%.

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.44% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

QSR’s shares have declined 5.5% year to date. It reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 10.2%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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